Nintendo Switch 2: Analyst Predicts Strong US Sales in 2025
Gaming analyst Mat Piscatella forecasts robust US sales for the upcoming Nintendo Switch 2, estimating approximately 4.3 million units sold in 2025, contingent on a first-half launch. This projection mirrors the original Switch's impressive 4.8 million unit sales by the end of 2017, a figure that exceeded initial expectations and led to supply shortages. Nintendo's aim is likely to avoid a repeat of such supply chain issues this time around.
Anticipation for the Switch 2 is palpable, consistently trending on social media. However, Piscatella cautions that online buzz doesn't automatically translate to sales. The Switch 2's ultimate success hinges on several critical factors, primarily its launch timing and the competitiveness of its initial game lineup.
Piscatella's prediction, shared via Bluesky, anticipates the Switch 2 capturing roughly one-third of the US video game console market in 2025 (excluding handheld PCs like the Steam Deck). He acknowledges potential supply constraints due to high demand but remains uncertain about Nintendo's production capacity. The company may have proactively addressed potential shortages, learning from past experiences with the original Switch and the PS5.
While projecting strong Switch 2 performance, Piscatella still forecasts the PlayStation 5 as the leading console in US sales for 2025. The considerable hype surrounding the Switch 2 is a positive factor, but the PS5's anticipated release of major titles, including the highly anticipated Grand Theft Auto 6, could significantly impact sales. Ultimately, the Switch 2's hardware capabilities and launch game selection will be key determinants of its market dominance. A timely launch, ideally before summer, could capitalize on peak holiday sales periods.
